Escalating Verbal Conflict Involving Ethiopian Government and Eritrea Raises Concerns of Conflict

Increasing apprehensions are present over the potential of armed conflict involving East African countries, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as confrontational rhetoric has escalated in the last month.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, calls for passage to the sea coast through Eritrea has sparked a intense verbal exchange.

PM Abiy Ahmed first openly declared in the previous year that his government's access to the sea was an existential matter, statements that Eritrea rejected.

Ties between the both governments have regularly been difficult. Following a long-standing battle for independence, Eritrea, which has a long Red Sea coastline, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in 1993, rendering it landlocked.

Subsequently, a border war erupted in which more than 100,000 people were killed.

Latest Statements from Ethiopian Government

Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have openly claimed sovereignty of Eritrean coastal city of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the border - and implied the desire to take it by force.

Recently, the Prime Minister said the country's "blunder" of losing access to the sea as a result of Eritrea secession would be "addressed soon".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that the port was "Ethiopian property" and would be returned "by force".

Eritrea's Response to the Statements

Amid persistent challenges from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been restricted to short statements on social media from Information Minister Yemane G..

He has rejected Ethiopia's demand for maritime entry labeling it "dangerous" and a "toxic agenda" of "irredentism" – a strategy of reclaiming former lands.

The information ministry cautioned on recently that moves to justify "obvious provocation" would have major implications for Ethiopia and its neighbors and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Preparations on the Ground

So far, there are little evidence of major military movements in the border areas between the both nations.

However, in the country, government media has broadcast completion events of numerous trainees at various military training camps.

The director of personnel division of the military, General Hachalu, commented lately in an discussion that the army was in a "secure situation" as "tens of thousands of recruits" were joining it, which he said was "a message to our enemies".

Previous Background of the Conflict

For decades from the late 19th century, the territory was administered by Italian colonisers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then controlled by the British administration before evolving into a associated territory of Ethiopia.

However in the early 1960s Emperor Haile Selassie I terminated this agreement and the region became completely integrated into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long civil war ensued, ending with the government's loss in 1991. Sovereignty was then approved by Eritreans in a vote in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they disagreed over the specific demarcation of their common border, resulting in war in 1998.

Even though this finished in a truce in 2000, it was partially applied, and the neighbors remained at loggerheads.

This situation improved in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrean President the president. The both leaders endorsed a statement that the hostilities was over – a action that earned the Prime Minister the prestigious award.

The both administrations were then cooperators in Ethiopia's previous civil war in Tigray.

However diplomatic connections have subsequently deteriorated again.