Irish Unification Referendum Should Not Transform Into 'Another Brexit', Analysts Caution

A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."